Well, I'm not overly excited about grinding down a 4K month, but i'll take it. As usual i earned almost all the money by playing 2-man 110 and FPP rakeback. I'm scoring about +5/game in my last 2000 games in the 110 turbo now, and I get about 1 dollar in FPP rakeback every game, so im doing ok by two tabling. But it should be possible to make +10/game in the 110 (thats only 57% win rate). My goal for 2009 is to increase my 110 turbo win rate.
My leaks in march was the useal -1.5K in the 220 turbo. It's really amazing how I can be that many buy ins down against a bunsh of semi-weak players. Its obvious that most of the players there, even serveral of the regulars are totally exploitable. Anyway I'm not going to play the 220 before my total online winnings are so big that losing 5 games in a row against compleate idiots wont affect my total winnings at all. That is sharkscope total profit 100K.
My goal is to destroy april. Nothing less than a +6K month.
12 comments:
keep grinding it, thomas. 4k is still an ok month!
i don't see why your "total online winnings" determines when you move up though. shouldn't it just be your overall bankroll??? is it bc you dont want a downswing to make your sharkscope look bad??? not sure i follow.
anyways, crush.
good luck.
Yes, im a bit strange that way. I dont care that much about my roll. Takes me only 20 seconds to deposit more money if i bust. Cash out is also easy. Enjoying neteller I can have the money in my hand in hard cash 1 hour later using my neteller mastercard. No tax what so ever obviously.
So the thing that gets me pissed off and nervious is when i lose a lot compared to my total online profit. I've only made about 35-40K online in my life time. When ever i lose more than 5% of my total online profit i start to question how safe and consistently my online poker business really is.
So in the way im thinking about this, I probably need 100K total profit before i can play the 220 comfortably.
Glad you haven't gone back to DON-key. If you get bored, then just drink your beer and go play your $5 sng-hsup.
Hey..I'm on a 100 game break-even stretch...Hokie had mention on his blog he had a 250 break even stretch as well, but he called it semi-long! What? Is there a longer one?
At 100, I am starting to question what the heck I am doing wrong.
I also pose a question to you as well...
If you push when you are ahead in a coin flip, do you think it is a good idea when you are facing someone who is -6 roi or worse?
My thinking is, if you don't push small PP preflop vs -roi players and play it out....-roi will pay you off and make bad plays. If you do push, and you give him a flip - you basically make it even steven in beating you. Rather than 58/42 if you play him 100 times. You know what I mean? Especially makes me wonder when I go 0/8 in last flips.
searching - 100 game breakeven stretch is SO OMGOMGOMG standard in turbos and still crazy standard in reg speeds
tks...I feel better... I tried to break down my game, but I really honestly couldn't see any different in the way I was playing...just running like crap and breaking even...better than losing
Yes, its hard to define what's a significant break even/losing stretch. But I think its fine to be a bit critical about your game when ever youre not winning after 100 games, even though it's standard variance. If youre not winning after 500 games its a good chance you have played sub-optimal.
I believe the luck factor is pretty small in HU sngs, also with an marginal ROI (win rate). I mean, you could get really unlucky in 30 games session, but long before you've played 100 games you will catch a good run as well. My ROI in the 110 is about 4% the last 3000 games in the 110 turbo. And my roi is about the same the last 2000 games, last 1000 games, and last 500 games. I believe that its quite seldom that im down in a 100 games stretch IF I PLAY my a-game all the way and try to stay away from the big dogs.
But pretty much all of us tilt quite a bit sometimes when running bad, and play quite a bit vs other strong players when running bad. Thats why we quite often (instead of quite seldom) are slightly down after 100 games.
When ever top players like thephenom919 are having bad runs in a big sample way above 500 games im sure sub-optimal play and arrogant game-selection is a significant part of it.
Now, about you second question about flipping vs a fishy player. My generally opponion is that you should not be affraid of a flip, especially not at 25/50+ blinds. Lets say you are playing vs an agro fish deep at 10/20 blinds. You raise it up to 60 with 44 from SB. Fish makes it 220. What do you do?
I would shove here if i believe the fish is quite aggressive and 3betting a lot. If i dont got any read on him or if I know he is quite tight preflop I would fold. Calling is terrible.
So your read on villians preflop aggressivity determines if you should 4bet push a small pocket. The value is not in the flip, you dont really wanna be called with a low pocket. The value is in the fold equity.
77+ is a good 4bet push unless you know villian got a ridiculous tight 3-bet range at 10/20. 66 is kinda borderline.
But i really dont like to write general about this topic. Its many factors that counts. So feel free to post hand histroy including reads on villian next time.
(God, this reply got a bit out of hand lenght wise.)
Yeah, man 4k a month for a whole yr would still be almost 50k/yr. That's not to bad for playing a card game duuuuuuuuuuuuddddeeeeeee. Keep push push pushing.
meh i don't like that logic.
i would argue that making 50k playing a card game is worse than making 50k at a job and its not really that close.
take into account resume gap, taxes, social stigma, stress, etc.
it's obv nice not having to sit in stop and go traffic every morning and hating some stupid job. i just dont think if u are kinda struggling to grind out 50k/year in poker that it is a very safe option as longterm career.
there are going to be a TON of guys that are "playing for a living" right now that are going to regret it down the road.
imo
That's true Hokie. I guess it depends just how much you enjoy playing. I would personally play for 40k a yr just because I really do love it as a job. It's def not safe as a long term career. I personally think within 5-10 yrs this poker craze will die out. But even if I knew it would die out in 5 yrs I would still do it personally for 40k yr and not have any regrets. Gotta do what u like. That's just me though.
The stress can def be a bitch for 40k though lol. You pay just as much in taxes at any other job however. Pretty close anyways, obv getting no health ins/401k kinda sucks.
Yes,I'll be happy if i make 50K in 2009. I'm only a part time player, and stell got to improve a bit and build my total online profit up a bit before im ready for the games that are suited for 100-200K+/year profits.
However i gotta agree with hokiegreg. 50K/year playing full-time online poker is a suboptimal life for me, and probably for most people, compared to having a normal career.
100K year however is a pretty good living, and significantly more money that what most people excpect from a normal career. I'm not happy with nothing less than 100K/year if i play full time poker someday.
But i think its important to be a bit realistic about this. How large % of active poker players are making <100K/year?
Its obviously extreamly few, so you cant really be that disappointed if you never get that far.
For most people that are considering "playing for a living" I think its a good idea to stick to a normal job and play part-time poker until you are pretty sure you will make at least 100K/year playing full time.
yeah, guess it all depends on the person. GL everybody!!!!
The decsion on how much is enough to justify poker as a career is extremely dependent on that persons lifestyle choices, and their alternatives. 40K/yr is huge for a guy whose alternative is cooking in a restaurant for $10/hr.
As a guy who had a corporate career for 13 yrs making $200K+ I would argue that 50K playing poker is pretty darn good. Hokie makes a few points, but I dont agree with any of them.
1) Resume gap...anyone with 1/2 a brain can come up with a creative way to fill that gap.
Call your poker career an entrepreneurial venture...Wingpin Inc, and that you did consulting, training, etc. This could be easily spun into a positive.
2) Taxes...this is a wash...one must pay taxes with a regular job just like poker. I dont see any difference here.
3) Social Stigma...this can be easily gotten around just like #1. Poker players can learn to describe their entrepreneurial activities in such a way that makes it sound glamorous and interesting...it just requires somne creativity. Call it "investing", "consulting", "capital management". Being a peddler for a pharma company, or a financial analyst isnt going to buy you much cred either I'm afraid.
4) Stress....all money making ventures contain stress. Managing the stress is actually a large part of being a successful poker player as any good poker player knows. Stress is so front and center with poker that dealing with it becomes part of the skill set itself. They dont teach you that in corporate america.
5) Finally, one must consider the alternatives. Currently, the job market is tepid at best. If you have an MBA from an Ivy league school, and your alternative is to work at Goldman Sachs as an Investment banker, then poker is a bad decision. If you have no degree and no experience, 40k playing poker is a no brainer.
Having the freedom to get up whenever you want, go play tennis/golf in the middle of the day..every day, stay up late watching a rock band and getting hammered, and not having to smoke some fat, bald, egotistical cock suckers pole 5 days a week is worth a lot in my book.
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