Yo what's up.
Solid june so far. Happy with +1.5K after 4 days. I'm sure 6-10K will become standard monthly profit now. I've earned +7 dollars/game included rakeback last 3000 games in the 115 turbo, so monthly profit is mostly a question about volume. I mean, if I want to make 10K by two-tabling 115 turbo I gotta play 1500 games a month. I would be happy to do that if I played full-time. I'm still a psychology major and cant really play more than 1000 games a month.
Some hours ago erichuongdu sat down at my 115 table. Some days ago I railed him when he got the better of skilled_sox in multiple games. So i knew he was a great player that is capable of pulling off huge plays.
At the 25/50 level this hand happend. We had both been playing kinda loose-aggressive so far in the match with quite a bit re-raising involed.
PokerStars Game #28994947936: Tournament #169247055, $110+$5 Hold'em No Limit - Match Round I, Level III (25/50) - 2009/06/04 17:51:01 ET
Table '169247055 1' 2-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: thomasny (1630 in chips)
Seat 2: erichuongdu (1370 in chips)
thomasny: posts small blind 25
erichuongdu: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to thomasny [9c 8s]
thomasny: raises 50 to 100
erichuongdu: calls 50
*** FLOP *** [7c Ah Ac]
erichuongdu: bets 100
thomasny: raises 150 to 250
erichuongdu: raises 200 to 450
thomasny: raises 1080 to 1530 and is all-in
erichuongdu: folds
Uncalled bet (1080) returned to thomasny
thomasny collected 1100 from pot
thomasny: shows [9c 8s] (a pair of Aces)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1100 | Rake 0
Board [7c Ah Ac]
Seat 1: thomasny (button) (small blind) collected (1100)
Seat 2: erichuongdu (big blind) folded on the Flop
Good or bad push?
I really don't know. Please give your opinion.
I shoved because I simply had a feeling he would fold. I think it's a +ev shove if he is folding 50% of the time. If he's calling I will win the game about 20% of the time in the end because I got some equity (backdoor flush, backdoor str8, live cards vs the 7) and still 260 chips left if i lose the "race".
If he fold i'm excpected to win in the end 73% of the times. And if I fold istead of shoving i'm excpected to win 43%.
So if he folds 50% of the times (and calls 50% of the times obviously) I will win 73/2 + 20/2 = 36.5 + 10 = 46.5%. Which is better than folding, because folding gives me only 43% chance to win. So my point is that shove is the best move if I believe he will fold to my shove at least 50% of the times.
It's important to note that i would never do this play vs a fish. I would fold at the flop typically then. It's not because a fish never would fold to my shove. The improtant difference is that the chance to end up as a winner in the end is relatively higher if I fold vs a fish compared to folding vs an equal skilled opponent. Against an equaly skilled opponent you got 40% excpectation to win the game if you fold with 1200 chips left. Against a fish the excpectation is significantly higher. It's really sad to bluff off all your chips against a player that you often can beat by just betting big with strong hands.
But don't get me wrong here, I'm not a nit vs a fish, especially not a loose aggressive fish. I'm happy to 4-bet shove 44 at 10/20 level against those. And I dont think twice about 3-bet shvoing 22 at the 25/50 level. One leak some players have is that they overestimate the edge they got vs loose aggressive fish, by defending passivly, by calling istead of 3-bet shoving small pockets at high blinds etc. But putting my whole stack in with 9 high without a draw (like a did vs erichuongdu) is really bad vs a fish.
GL thomas.
Thursday, June 4, 2009
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15 comments:
i don't think 7X hardly ever makes the small 3bet to 450 on the flop...pretty sure if 7X is going to raise you it's going to be a shove....you are going to see AX or air here like always considering the bet sizings
i dont mind your play if you hes capable of some tricky stuff and if you dont think he's donking AX there often....i'm pretty sure that 20% equity is a gross overestimation versus the range he will show up with when you get all in tho...even w ur backdoor draws some of ur outs are likely to be dead
u are going to have to start being willing to playing above average players at least sometimes, thomas. if u plan on playing at 220 and higher eventually, you just have to sometimes. if you plead with everyone you play to not sit you, you are just going to aggravate them and they will sit you bc you annoy them (probably some of the reason that you get sat by regulars semi-often these days).
just some friendly advice. i wish you the best of luck obv.
I think you need that math teacher from Stand and deliver Mr. Escalante to teach you calculus
I think if you want to figure out if this is a profitable play you are better off figuring out what you expectation is in terms of chips. In this case the pot is $900 after villain puts in the small reraise and he has $820 behind, so it costs you the $200 raise+$820 to put him all in($1,020). so you are risking $1,020 to win $900 if he folds. If he calls you lose you're $1,020 bet unless you draw out in which case you will win the $1,720($900+$820). I agree with Hokie that 20% is a pretty big overestimation, I think you're facing an A too much when stacks go in the way the hand was played. I think 10% is a better estimation. So the equation would look like this:
(.50)$900+(.50)[(.10)$1,720+(.90)(-$1,020)]
50% of the time he folds and you win 900...50% of the time he calls and when that happens you win $1720 10% of the time and lose $1020 90% of the time.
When you solve this it comes out to be +77 chips. So if it's true that he folds 50% of the time and it's also true that you have a 10% chance of winning when called this move is a chip winner.
Now that I look at that though I wonder if 10% if even a bit hopeful. If villain shows up with a hand like A6 you are only 5%. If he shows up with a hand like Q7dd you are about 30% but I fear the vast majority of the time you'll be up against an A when called. You'd prob be more justified pushing if you thought he would fold more like 60% of time I guess.
That got a bit wordy, but I felt like nerding up a bit....GL
Thanks for replies.
However I disagree with a lot here.
First of all it seems like you guys did not understand (comprehend) what I wrote about 20% excpectation to win if i'm called. I did not say that I will win the "race" 20% of the times if i'm called. I said that i will win the GAME 20% of the times, given the fact that i stell got 260 chips left if i lose = 9% chance to win the game. If you add that 9% to the chance of sucking out i think 20% is as close to accurate we can get.
I also disagree to your opponion that he will only call with AAA here. I agree he represents AAA based on betsizing but thats far from sure. EZ now Stu Ungar, you really can't be sure before the cards are turned over, especially not in a spot like this vs a tricky opponent.
To put it this way: If i knew he only would call med with AAA I would be happy to add a first, second, third, fourth, fifth, and sixth mortgage to the bet, because he will hold AAA way less than 50% of the times.
The problem is that he might be calling with the 7 or a draw that is crushing me as well (but then i got some equity). Again I agree based on the betsizing its not that likely he's calling me with 7 or a draw/high card, but its stell a significant part of the picture.
bpmst2: i have no idea what you are talking about.
Maybe because i dont even have a TV or radio in my "student" room.
ok i guess you didn't want advice lol
also, i would destroy stu ungar in online husngs
HHmmm...this might be way over my head. First of all, I totally don't believe that you would consider this so specifically in terms of % of stats when you are playing with time (timed out) being a factor. Unless you got a formula to calculate it in a few seconds, your autistic, or your a genius. When you are playing you taking the chances whether or not your opponent is capable of calling when you shove with whatever you have based on your past moves during the early part of the game.
I think all this statistic thing is so specific, but at that moment in the game you don't calculate it like that. Thomas was probably thinking....he got a '7' or '8' (whatever the non ace cards what at flop & turn)..."...and I got to convince him that I have an ace even though he is testing me that he believe otherwise....simply put in another way...
Thomas had the right read on his opponents cards, move, and decided correctly he couldn't lay it down and had to bet/raise accordingly to convince Eric to fold. I don't think the discussion about odds should come into play about one single hand, when the style of play and how that player was playing you and his perception of you is built all the way up to the 50/100 level on up.
I think Hokie was referring to what I mentioned by thisl : "i dont mind your play if you hes capable of some tricky stuff and if you dont think he's donking AX there often..."
The last thing you asked yourself or determined was whether or not you can simply fold or raise him to make him fold and if he does have an ace...do you have a draw to beat him. Those are simple general math or poker math if you will. Given the blinds being so high, you made the right play for your reads.
Perhaps it wasn't the right play for someone play tight and you were always the aggressor. You mentioned before that it was loose-aggressive game...wouldn't that throw another factor into your equation then?
I think also that asking players not to sit with you is a really smart thing, and it is better than sharkscoping ....thomas would then have less volume and thus less $$$ to rake in if he reverted back to his old days of 8 games per 10 hours...lol...
I think for the most part people granted his requests for not playing him.
I do agree with Hokie that you will eventually have to play better players on 220, but if you want to win lots of money and you can find weaker opponents at your level...then why not? I think Thomas' learning curve might be lower than Bart's, Hokie, BCM, etc....but I think he will get there. You other sharks got there much easier 'cuz you probably got the game for it.
Build your bankroll Thomas, skill levels, and you will sooner or later go up higher and can REALLY stomach the swings at 220.
Yeah, I mean obv nobody is doing equations like that in the midst of a hand, but it is still a great way to go back and look to see if you made the right play. And if villain is folding 50% of the time and thomas has 10% equity when called it shows it is a chip winner. That can't be argued. It's making those assumptions that is the tricky part.
And you actually can do calculations like that at the table it just wouldn't be so specific, it's kinda like pot odds, if it's costing you 445 to win a 1415 pot you don't need to know "I'm getting 3.18 to 1, just figuring i'm getting about 3 to 1 and going from there is prob good.
Some people don't like math equations like that in poker, but I think it's a great way to look back on your play. Also, the more you do it the easier it will come to you at the table.
Just my opinion though....GL folks
yo thomas I like that reshove alot because Skilled sox is a good player who makes a living off of three betting opponents in spots like that all day. When he three bets it, i think its way less than 50 that he has A, prob more like 20 percent and hes just reading that u dont have Ace. If he calls the 4th bet with out the ace then thats just great poker there but ur bet represents alot. I feel like he is def less then 50 to call in that spot, prob closer to 40 or maybe even slightly less so thats def a winning play against skilled sox. Im moving up the stakes right now and i play alot of 30s and 50s and I jump into 100s as well too but not consistently yet, tho I am 15W to 7 L so far in the 100 but I want to see my stats after 1000 games before I have any idea of where I am against those players. Do u like to keep 100 buy ins for whatever stake ur playing when it comes to HU or how do u like to do it?
lol thomasny fanboys
Aight. I appreciate all comments here. That dosnt mean i agree to everything you guys are writing.
Searching: I share your thinking about playing soft games in the 115 instead of moving up to 230. In a year I should be up more than 100K online if i stick to 115. Then it will be more easy mentally to handle some nasty swings in the 230s.
Deezguns: Gl in the 115. After 1000 games you got a decent idea where you stand. After 2000 games you got a good idea where you stand. And after 5000 games its almost no luck at all involed.
I find that a bit tricky with online poker and moving up in stakes. You gotta play a ton of games several months before you can be quite sure about your EV.
I dont care much about bankroll. I never downswing more than 20 buy ins in the 115. Typically I have some few 10-18 buy in downswings every month. But never more than 20. Typically I got 10-30 buy ins in my roll. Sometimes i go busta and just insta-deposit some few dollars with creditcard and build it up again.
Bankroll is overrated if youre crushing a spesific game, like i'm doing in the 115 turbo. Probably more important at higher buy ins though.
"Bankroll is overrated if youre crushing a spesific game, like i'm doing in the 115 turbo."
Wow. You must be pretty insecure to constantly feel the need to say things like this?
its AX or air infinitely more often than 7X or flush draw. why would he make this tiny reraise with those hands?
do you really disagree with me on this?
i'm not even disagreeing with your play, but you should be doing it bc he has air here so often that its profitable...not bc of ur outs vs 7X/fd
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