Ok guys. I've decided to make the move up to 230 turbo on a permanent basis now. I feel ready to make this move based on my great 115 stats in 2009. I think i'm statistcally one of the best players that have been playing mostly 115 turbo in 2009.
My scope shows 12% roi last 500 games, 8% roi last 1000 games, and 7% roi last 2000 games. My game has improved a bit every month, so I estimate around 8-9% roi to be my "true" long term roi in the 115 turbo if I kept playing the 115 now. Thats +10/game and great roi when two tabling a turbo game.
So now I can just move up to the 230, two table and play anyone, just like i have been doing in the 115. And I will make consistently money guaranteed
Not really.
I think a lot of players have done this mistake, me included. It's time to learn.
I noticed that a player with a name something like xxx_luis_xxx moved up from the 55 to the 115 some a month ago. He was killing the 55 turbo by 2-3 tabling. I noticed that when he moved up he played 2-3 tables right away in the 115 as well, and didnt seem to care about avoiding regulars (he even sat against me, hardly recognizing my name). As you might figure he got absolutely murdered, and dropped 6K in a 1000 games sample, not surprising at all.
Business skills is just as important as pure game skills to succeede in online poker. With business skills i mean a players ability to adapt to the the lobby environment, beeing aware of other good and bad players in the game, playing the optimal stake and number of tables to optimalize profit and make sure to avoid large downswing compared to previous profits and bankroll. Etc etc.
xxx_luis_xxx had the HU sng skills to move up, but not the business skills.
So, even though a player is crushing a stake, most players will experience a long and tough process when they move up to the next level. I remember this when I tried to move up to the 115 in 2008. I was lucky to have a good run right away when I first began to play 115, and grinded 4K in a week. Some days later I dopped 4K in one single day, which is still my worst downswing in my poker career. After that horrible downswing I made a great business decision by moving down to 55 and only game-select in the 115. Some months later I took some shots sitting in the 115 again, combined with controlling profit with game selection when i ran bad. I kept on doing this until I finally in december 2008 began to beat the 115 consistently and got increased respect from other regulars in the game. So it took me about 8 months to move from beeing a "115 player" to become a consistently winning and respect regular in the game.
I'll promise everone that this 8 month process was tough and stressful because I had to get used to 2-3 times bigger downswing compered to playing 55 or game-selecting 115.
To sum up, moving up is tough by a numerous of reasons.
1. The oponents are overall slightly more skilled.
2. Getting respect from a new set of regulars at the higher stake.
3. Getting mentally comfortable dealing with twice as much money
4. Handling downswings that are 2-3 times as big.
5. Handeling the fact that you got no previous big winning sample at the new stake (so its hard to be totally confident that you are playing a +ev game and will overcome the downswing and win money soon when experiencing a downswing).
I'll be back with more 230 stuff in a week or so.
August profit: +4.5K
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
8 comments:
gl thomas...this doesn't mean i won't be sitting on u..'cuz i love to take shots at sharks/regulars.. you should love that 'cuz you own me last 7 games or so.
Your right about business sense in that it would affect emotionally if you can't handle the new level of variance in your new swing.
nice article.
220$ become crowded with regs and it certainly needs some clashes to clean it a little bit.
though there is still (too much?) respect between regs so far.
gl thomas
yeah nice article!
gl thom!
searching: I don't understand why youre seeking to play vs regs.
If you sit first in 115 you will get action from both fish and regs automaticly.
I've been running good vs you obviously. A score like 7 wins in a row happens sometimes when a slightly better player is running very good, like between us. I think 4 losses in a row is pretty much the worst run i've ever had against a sigificantly less skilled opponent. (then they always run away when i finally win a game, screew them!)
la_gachette:
Thanks. I'm not shocked to see you post a comment here, but I would at least say I'm a bit surprised.
Interstingly you probably would not have posted the comment if you knew I expected it. If i know you right :)
About the 220 lobby it easy to notice that its quite often time-consuming to find action from losing/bad players. Yesterday i several times had to sit more than 5 minutes before i got a game going, even though i was sitting in the 200 normal speed as well. As you say it seems to be a high degree of peacefulness among the regulars in the 230 now (as long at thephenom919 is not playing). Thankfully some of the 230 fish agreed to re-match me and kept on playing until they went bust (a player is busto when they accept rematch but the game gets canceled)
I try to avoid clashing with other established regulars by not insta-sitting in the 220 lobby right after it's available, and by beeing aware of the action going on in the game. Let's say if dibasio is is sitting in the lobby and and he is not playing other games, or i know you or hokiegreg etc are just done playing. Then i do not consider the lobby to be available when a new 220 comes up. In that situation I excpect dibasio or an another established 230+ regular to take the lobby right away. However I will take the seat if no one sits within 2-3 seconds.
aurimelis:
Ty. Keep on blogging!
Good luck in the 230 Thomas. I'm sure you'll do just fine.
Is that really why the rematch gets cancelled after both players accept rematch?? That makes sense. I always thought it was some sort of glitch going on there, but that makes way more sense.
The 230 lobby can get packed and ridiculous, sometimes there are 2-3 regs waiting for the lobby to open. I'm always willing to jump up to a 345 or even 570 to get action sometimes as well as moving down to a 115. It'll prob only get worse in the future.......
Good post Thomas. The guy you spoke of is xlx_luis_xlx. I've played him quite a few times in the $33's awhile back, and did well against him. I'm curious...do you really think he has the poker acumen to be successful at the $110? In other words, if he 1 tabled the $110, would he be a winner?
Ty, Bartchalker: Yes, the busto-accept thing is funny. I'm sure it's canceled because of bust, because i've been busto accept my self some few times when i played low-rolled in the 115. It's totally crushing and brutal when you win 5 games in row against a guy and the 6th game is canceled because of busto.
Wing: thx. xlx_lous_xlx has been killing the 55s several months, also when 2-3 tabling. He got 11% roi and +6/game in the 55s the last 1000 games which is actually quite impressive.
So im sure he would beat the 115 if he 1-tabled, cooperated with 115 regulars and spent some time on getting mentally adapted to dealing with 2-3 times as much money and downswings.
He has lost 8K in a sample of 1600 games in the 115 now. That is means that he has won 50% of his games and only lost to the rake. So he is not that far from beating the game, and Im sure he will beat the 115 soon if he manage to get more comfortable, adjusting to other regulars and figure out if he should play 1 or two tables.
Even Gachette is writing?! Sick! Ok, now I really have to call it!^^
xlx_lous_xlx is def not a bad player. Maybe he was one of the best at 55, but I'm pretty sure that he's a loser there now as well.
It's hard to realise when u need a longer break to regain the feeling for the money and the game.
Yes, I do know what I'm talking boud.. ;)
It's right that player are busted when the game is cancelled after both accepted. I asked the support some weeks about it - Just some days before the rematch glitch occurred.
Gl at the 220s thomas!
For several reasons I'm still not sure if it's more profitable to play the 220s for a goodrunning 110player.
Looking forward to read if you can improve ur hourly winrate...
Post a Comment